Anglers talk about weather constantly and a lot of what gets repeated is nonsense inherited from someone’s grandfather. What I can say after enough years of keeping notes is that a few things genuinely correlate with catching in autumn, and most of the rest is noise.
Water temperature beats air temperature
Start here, because it is the one that matters most and the one people ignore. Air temperature changes fast, water temperature changes slowly. A cold snap that drops the air by ten degrees might move the water by one.
What matters is the trend and the rate of change. A gradual cooling is fine and fish adapt. A sudden sharp drop, particularly the first hard frost of the season, will shut fish down for a day or two while they adjust.
A cheap thermometer is the most useful piece of kit you can carry in autumn. Knowing the water is nine degrees rather than thirteen tells you far more about what to expect than any forecast.
Stable is better than warm
This is the single most useful thing I know about weather and fishing. Fish respond to stability more than to any particular condition.
Three days of steady, unchanging weather, even if it is cold and grey, will usually fish better than a day of dramatic change even if that change is towards something that sounds better.
So if you are picking a day, look for the third day of a settled spell rather than the first day after a front comes through.
Falling pressure and the front
The classic advice is that fish feed hard on falling pressure ahead of a front. In my experience that holds up reasonably well, particularly for predators.
What is more reliably true is the flip side. Sharply rising pressure after a front has passed, with clear skies and a cold wind, is usually hard work. High bright pressure in autumn is the condition I would avoid if I had a choice.
I would not cancel a trip over a barometer, but if I am choosing between two days I take the one with pressure falling or steady rather than climbing.
Wind direction, honestly assessed
The old rhyme about the wind from the west being best is not entirely wrong, though the reason is not mystical. In Britain a westerly or south westerly usually brings milder, damper, cloudier air, which is good autumn fishing weather.
A northerly or easterly usually brings colder, drier, clearer air, which is not.
So it is not the direction, it is what the direction is carrying. A mild easterly is fine. A bitter westerly is not.
What matters more is which bank the wind is on. On stillwaters, fish the bank the wind blows into. It pushes food and warmer surface water against that shore. It is less comfortable and it is where the fish are.
Cloud cover and light
Overcast beats bright for almost everything in autumn, particularly predators. Low light gives ambush fish the advantage and they use it.
Bright, clear, still autumn days look beautiful and fish poorly. If you get one, fish the edges of the day and expect the middle to be slow.
Rain: the best variable
On rivers, rain is the most important single factor in autumn. It lifts levels, adds colour, washes food in and triggers feeding. The best river sessions of my year come in the two days after significant rain, when the level is dropping and the colour is still there.
On stillwaters rain matters less, though a mild wet day is usually better than a bright dry one.
What I ignore
Moon phase. I have kept notes for years and I cannot find a pattern I would bet money on.
Precise pressure numbers. The trend matters, the absolute figure does not.
Most long range forecasts. Anything beyond about three days is not reliable enough to plan around.
How I would pick an autumn day
Mild, overcast, breezy, third day of a settled spell, with a south westerly. If it is a river, two days after rain with the level falling. That is the day worth taking off work for, and it will not be the day that looks nicest out of the window.
Gear that fits this
Gear that suits what this covers, by type.
Floats and terminal gear: Guru Super Tight Line Stops Squared Black Small, Matrix Carbon Margin Pole Float 0.2g and Guru Roach Wire Pole Float 0.5g.
For baits, Dynamite Baits Swim Stim Carp Groundbait Betaine Green, Sonubaits Supercrush Green 2kg and CC Moore Pacific Tuna Pellets-6mm-3kg are all worth a look.
Reels worth adding: 25 Ballistic Air LT Reels-LT3000-H, Azaki 30 Reel and Zelos 6000 Mini Pit Reel.
On the rods side, N'Zon 2.0 Feeder Rods-11’ Carp Method Feeder 2pc, Drennan Vertex 15ft Float Rod and Aventus R Pellet Waggler Rods-10ft.
Rob Hadley grew up fishing the rivers and drains of the Norfolk Broads, and it was inevitable that pike would become his species of choice. He’s been targeting predators seriously for over 20 years – starting on dead baits, moving through live bait rigs, and eventually landing on lure fishing as his preferred method about eight years ago.
These days he fishes the Broads through winter, travels to Chew Valley Lake each spring for its outsized fish, and spends the warmer months working soft plastics on rivers across the East Midlands for perch and zander. He’s had pike to 31lb and perch to 3lb 9oz, and reckons both records are beatable on the right day with the right set-up.
At The River Bend, Rob writes the predator species guides, lure fishing technique articles, and most of the winter fishing content.
Covers: Pike, perch, zander, lure fishing, winter fishing, predator rigs